PARLIAMENTARY WRITTEN QUESTION
(3 September 2026)

The Met Office provides the Home Office with a daily assessment of the likelihood of at least one small boat crossing attempt which translates into Red, Amber and Green days. This assessment takes multiple factors into account - further detail on the methodology can be found in the previous Home Office publication at www.gov.uk/government/statistics/small-boat-arrivals-and-the-impact-of-crossing-conditions/small-boat-arrivals-and-the-impact-of-crossing-conditions.

The Home Office began receiving the Met Office assessment from September 2019, as such some of the data requested is unavailable. Available data on the number of red days is provided below up to 31 August 2026 – while this goes beyond the periods requested, it is provided in one place for completeness. This data shows that there have been more favourable crossing conditions so far this year than the same period in almost any year since 2020. Red days this year have already exceeded the 106 recorded in the whole of 2022, which saw a record 45,000 migrants arrive in small boats.

To provide additional context to the request, the average number of arrivals per red day per year (to date) has also been provided. This demonstrates a notable reduction in the average number of arrivals per red day in 2026 (to 31 August). The average number of migrants arriving on red days between January and August has fallen by 38% from 232 to 144 over the past year. This represents a 43% drop from the peak of 251 in 2022.

Table 1. Number of red days per month – September 2019 to August 2026

Table 2. Average number of small boat arrivals per red day per year to date (1 Jan - 31 Aug)