PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
Breast Cancer Screening - 2 May 2018 (Commons/Commons Chamber)
Debate Detail
The NHS breast screening programme is overseen by Public Health England and is one of the most comprehensive in the world. It screens 2 million people every year, with women between the ages of 50 and 70 receiving a screen every three years up to their 71st birthday. However, earlier this year PHE analysis of trial data from the service found that there was a computer algorithm failure dating back to 2009. The latest estimates I have received from PHE is that, as a result, between 2009 and the start of 2018, an estimated 450,000 women aged between 68 and 71 were not invited to their final breast screening.
At this stage, it is unclear whether any delay in diagnosis will have resulted in any avoidable harm or death, and that is one of the reasons I am ordering an independent review to establish the clinical impact. Our current best estimate—which comes with caveats, as it is based on statistical modelling rather than on patient reviews, and because there is currently no clinical consensus about the benefits of screening for this age group—is that there may be between 135 and 270 women who have had their lives shortened as a result. I am advised that it is unlikely to be more than this range and may be considerably less. However, tragically, there are likely to be some people in this group who would have been alive today if the failure had not happened.
The issue came to light because an upgrade to the breast screening invitation IT system provided improved data to local services on the actual ages of the women receiving screening invitations. This highlighted that some women on the AgeX trial, set up to examine whether women up to the age of 73 could benefit from screening, were not receiving an invitation to their final screen as a 70-year-old. Further analysis of the data quantified the problem and has found a number of linked causes, including issues with the system’s IT and how age parameters are programmed into it. The investigation also found variations in how local services send out invitations to women in different parts of the country.
The existence of a potential issue was brought to the attention of the Department of Health and Social Care by Public Health England in January, although at that stage, its advice was that the risk to patients was limited. Following that, an urgent clinical evaluation took place to determine the extent of harm and the remedial measures necessary. Public Health England escalated the matter to Ministers in March, with clear clinical advice that the matter should not be made public. This was to ensure that a plan could be put in place that ensured any remedies did not overwhelm the existing screening programme and was able to offer proper support for affected patients.
I am now taking the earliest opportunity to update the House on all the remedial measures that have been put in place, which are as follows. First, urgent remedial work to stop the failure continuing has now been completed according to the chief executive of Public Health England. This was finished by 1 April and PHE is clear that the issue is not now affecting any women going forward.
Of the estimated 450,000 women who missed invitations to a scan, 309,000 are estimated to still be alive. Our intention is to contact all those living within the United Kingdom who are registered with a GP before the end of May, with the first 65,000 letters going out this week. Following independent expert clinical advice, the letters will inform all those under 72 that they will automatically be sent an invitation to a catch-up screening. Those aged 72 and over will be given access to a helpline through which they can get clinical advice to help them decide whether a screening is appropriate for their particular situation. This is because for older women, there is a significant risk that screening will pick up non-threatening cancers that may lead to unnecessary and harmful tests and treatment. However, this is an individual choice and in all cases, the wishes of the patients affected will be followed. By sending all the letters to UK residents registered with a GP by the end of May, we hope to reassure anyone who does not receive a letter this month that they are not likely to have been affected.
It is a major priority to do our very best to make sure that the additional scans do not cause any delays in the regular breast screening programme for those under 71, so NHS England has taken major steps to expand the capacity of screening services, and has today confirmed that all women affected who wish to be screened will receive an appointment within the next six months. Of course, we intend the vast majority to be much sooner than that.
We have held helpful discussions with the devolved Administrations to alert them to the issue. Scotland uses a different IT system, and while the systems in Wales and Northern Ireland are similar, neither believe they are affected. However, we are discussing with each of them the best way to reach women who have moved to another part of the UK during this period. This is obviously more complicated, but we are confident that those affected will still be contacted by the end of May.
In addition, and as soon as possible, we will make our best endeavours to contact the appropriate next of kin of those we believe missed a scan and have subsequently died of breast cancer. As well as apologising to the families affected, we would wish to offer any further advice they might find helpful, including the process by which we can establish whether the missed scan is a likely cause of death and compensation is therefore payable. We recognise that this will be incredibly distressing for some families, and we will approach the issue as sensitively as possible.
Irrespective of when the incident started, the fact is that for many years, oversight of our screening programme has not been good enough. Many families will be deeply disturbed by these revelations, not least because there will be some people who receive a letter having had a recent diagnosis of breast cancer. We must also recognise that there may be some who receive a letter having had a recent terminal diagnosis. For them and others, it is incredibly upsetting to know that you did not receive an invitation for screening at the correct time, and totally devastating to hear you may have lost or be about to lose a loved one because of administrative incompetence. So on behalf of the Government, Public Health England and the NHS, I apologise wholeheartedly and unreservedly for the suffering caused. But words alone are not enough. We also need to get to the bottom of precisely how many people were affected, why it actually happened and most importantly, how we can prevent it ever happening again.
Many in this House will also have legitimate questions that need answering: why did the algorithm failure occur in the first place, and how can we guarantee it does not happen again? Why did quality assurance processes not pick up the problem over a decade or more? Were there any warnings, written or otherwise, which should have been heeded earlier? Was the issue escalated to Ministers at the appropriate time? What are the broader patient safety lessons for screening IT systems?
I am therefore commissioning an independent review of the NHS breast screening programme to look at these and other issues, including its processes, IT systems and further changes and improvements that can be made to the system to minimise the risk of any repetition. The review will be chaired by Lynda Thomas, chief executive of Macmillan Cancer Support, and Professor Martin Gore, consultant medical oncologist and professor of cancer medicine at the Royal Mardsen, and is expected to report in six months.
The NHS has made huge progress under Governments of both sides of this House on improving cancer survival rates, which are now at their highest ever. Seven thousand people are alive today who would not have been if mortality rates had remained unchanged from 2010, but this progress makes system failures even more heartbreaking when they happen. Today, everyone in this House will be thinking of families up and down the country who are worried that they may have been affected by this failure. We cannot give all the answers today, but we can commit to take all the necessary steps to give people the information that they need as quickly as possible. Most of all, we want to be able to promise that this will not happen again, so today, the whole House will be united in our resolve to be transparent about what went wrong and to take the necessary actions to learn from the mistakes made. I commend this statement to the House.
Early detection and treatment are vital to reducing breast cancer mortality rates, which was why the AgeX pilots were established in 2009 and rolled out nationally from late 2010, when the Government expanded the screening programme. Given the problems that Public Health England has identified with its randomisation algorithm for those trials, will the Secretary of State tell us whether any evaluations and assessments of those pilots had been done by the Department before the national roll-out of the programme?
I welcome the Secretary of State’s candour in questioning why this problem was not picked up—eight years is a long time for an error of this magnitude to go undetected. Did the Department receive any warnings in that time? Is there any record of how many women raised concerns that they had not received the appropriate screening? Were there any missed opportunities to correct this mistake? He said graciously that oversight of the screening programme was not good enough. How does he intend to improve that oversight? What other trials are in place across the NHS and is he satisfied with their oversight?
We welcome the establishment of the national inquiry. Will it be hosted and staffed by the Department of Health or another Department? In the interests of transparency, will the Secretary of State place in the Library the Public Health England analysis from this year that identified the problem with the algorithm? Although the parallels are not exact, where the NHS offers bowel cancer screenings for women between the ages of 60 and 74 and cervical cancer screenings for women up to 64, what assurances can he give that the systems supporting those services are running properly, and what checks are being carried out to make sure that nobody misses out on screenings for other cancers?
The Secretary of State says that NHS England will take steps to expand the capacity of screening services. Will he say a little more about that? What extra resources will be made available to help the NHS provide the extra screening now needed? He will know that the NHS faces huge workforce pressures—according to Macmillan, there are more than 400 vacancies in cancer nursing, the Royal College of Radiologists has found that 25% of NHS breast screening programme units are understaffed, and there are vacancies for radiographers too. Will he assure us that the NHS will have the staff to carry out this extra work, and may I gently suggest that, if it needs extra international cancer staff, he ensures that the Home Office does not block their visas?
More broadly, does the Secretary of State share my concerns that screening rates are falling generally? The proportion of women aged 50 to 70 taking up routine breast screening invitations fell to 71.1% last year—the lowest rate in the last decade. There is also a wide regional variation in screening rates. The number of women attending breast screening in England is as low as 55.4% in some areas, and, as the all-party group on breast cancer found, there are stark inequalities in NHS services in England, with women in the worst-affected areas more than twice as likely to die from breast cancer under the age of 75. Beyond the problems identified today, what more are the Government doing to make sure that screening rates rise again so that cancer care for patients is the best it can be?
Finally, many of our constituents over whom breast cancer has cast a shadow will feel anxious and worried tonight. Members on both sides of the House want to see cancer prevented and those who have it fully supported. Transparency and clarity are vital. Will the Secretary of State undertake to keep the House fully informed of developments to offer our constituents the peace of mind they deserve?
It is important to explain that the reason for these estimates, which are much broader than we would like, is that there is no clinical consensus about the efficacy of breast screening for older women. As I understand it, that is because the incidences of cancers among older women are higher, but a higher proportion of them are not malignant or life-threatening, which makes it particularly difficult. It is also the case that breast cancer treatment has improved dramatically in recent years and so it is less important than it was to pick up breast cancer early. None the less, we believe it will have made a difference to some women, which is why it is such a serious issue.
The evaluations of the AgeX trial, which brought this to light at the start of the year, have been continued by Oxford University throughout the trial period. I am not aware of any evaluations shared with the Department that could have brought this problem to light, but obviously the inquiry will look into that. We need to find ways to improve oversight, and modern IT systems can greatly improve safety and reliability—in fact it was during the upgrading of the IT system that this problem was brought to light.
I will share with the hon. Gentleman the advice the Department received from Public Health England in January, which was the first time we were alerted to the issue, and we will certainly provide any extra resources the NHS needs to undertake additional cancer screening. One of our biggest priorities is that women between the ages of 50 and 70, when the screens are of their highest clinical value, do not find their regular screens delayed by the extra screening we do to put this problem right. He is right that one thing that has come to light is the regional variation in how the programme is operated. It was previously operated by the old primary care trusts, under the supervision of strategic health authorities, and then brought under the remit of Public Health England, but the regional variations have continued for a long time, so this problem will be worse in some parts of the country than in others. I undertake to keep the House fully informed.
Obviously this is horrendous for the women involved, but it will also create anxiety for women who are not aware whether they are involved and who might not have been part of the trial. Reassuring them will be a challenge. I welcome the independent review into how it happened and how it went so long without being picked up, and I am interested to know what will happen with the trial now—the loss of almost 500,000 women from it might have a major impact.
Given the normal pick-up rate of breast screening, approximately 2,500 cancers would have been picked up across England in the last round. As the Secretary of State says, this issue did not apply in Scotland, but some of the women affected might have moved and settled in Scotland, so when did he inform the Scottish Government?
The Secretary of State said that the Department knew in January. As far as I can establish, officers in Scotland were informed of a minor issue in March, were told only last week that it was actually more major, and were not told that it might affect women who now live in Scotland. There has clearly been preparation and talk about funding in England, but how many women who live in Scotland have been identified, and what efforts have been made to track them down? What preparations for funding or the expansion of services have been made for Scotland and, indeed, for the other devolved nations?
As was mentioned by the hon. Member for Leicester South (Jonathan Ashworth), radiology, and particularly breast radiology, is a huge shortage specialty. What funds will be provided to ensure that it can be delivered without messing up the normal system?
Will women who do not receive a letter in the next few weeks be able to telephone, or can the Secretary of State really guarantee that if they have not heard by the end of the month, they are clear? As a doctor, I find that a bit scary.
I will find out from Oxford University the dates on which it expects to report the full outcome of the AgeX trial. Obviously we all want to hear the results as soon as possible. I will also inform the hon. Lady of the exact date on which Scottish Government officials were informed. Let me reassure her that if there are any additional costs to the Scottish health system, it will of course be recompensed.
We do not think that major pressures will be created in the Scottish screening programme, and we are confident that we will be able to contact everyone in the UK who is registered with a GP—whether in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or England—by the end of May. We have had very productive discussions with Scottish officials about the IT exchange that will be necessary to ensure that women living in Scotland also receive their letters by the end of May. We cannot guarantee that every single one of them will have been contacted by then—some will have moved abroad, and some will not be registered with a GP for whatever reason—but we think that we can contact the vast majority, and the helpline will be open for anyone to call if they think they may have been affected.
My right hon. Friend referred to additional screening capacity to ensure that there is no impact on other, younger women. What undertakings can he give to any women who have been affected, and who find that they are suffering from a malignant growth in their breast, that they will be able to receive the appropriate treatment as rapidly as possible?
As my right hon. Friend will know, breast cancer is not just about survival nowadays; it is also about quality of life after treatment. Will his contact with those who have been affected extend to those who have been treated, but who may have had to be treated in a more radical way than might have been the case had their cancers been picked up earlier?
To respond to the earlier question about what people should do now, anyone is free to call the helpline number, which will be made public today, but we are hoping to get the letters out as quickly as possible over the next four weeks, during the month of May, so that everyone can be pretty confident that they are okay if they have not received one of those letters.
I am grateful to the Secretary of State for his assurance that capacity will be expanded to ensure that women can now access screening, but unless he puts further resources into the system, other people will go to the back of the queue as a consequence. In my region of the north-west, one in five posts are currently vacant, and for far too many women in this country where they live currently determines whether they live or die. So will the Secretary of State put in the additional resources needed to make sure all women can get the screening they need when they need it?
On the scope of the independent review, will it look at other screening programmes? It might be the case that this particular issue is not replicated, but I think people will want assurances about other screening programmes. Also, as the NHS looks to use IT as a powerful way to combat illness and disease, will the Secretary of State make sure that appropriate checks are in place so that there are proper assurances in the system and these kinds of problems do not arise in the future?
The Secretary of State knows well and cares deeply about safety matters. As he also knows, I have spent too much of my time with the clinicians in the cancer centres of Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells. Will the review perhaps look at administrative and back-office resources and at whether they play any part in improving survival rates?
Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.