PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
The Economy - 27 April 2020 (Commons/Commons Chamber)
Debate Detail
We should be in no doubt about the seriousness of the economic situation. The Office for Budget Responsibility has published a scenario showing that the coronavirus will have very significant impacts, both at home and in the global economy. More than 1.5 million new claims have been made to universal credit, over 4 million jobs have now been furloughed, and survey evidence suggests that a quarter of businesses have stopped trading. These are already tough times and there will be more to come.
Although our interventions have saved millions of jobs and businesses, we cannot save every job and every business. I understand and share people’s anxiety, but right now the most important thing that we can do to protect our economy is to protect the health of our people. As my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister said this morning, we are making progress. We are beginning to turn the tide but, if we lose control of the virus again, we risk seeing a second spike, which we all want to avoid. The goal of our economic strategy is to provide a bridge over what will be a sharp and significant crisis by keeping as many people as possible in their existing jobs, supporting viable businesses to stay afloat and protecting the incomes of the most vulnerable. In other words, it is to maintain the productive capacity of the British economy, so that, once we are able to refine the public health restrictions, we can as quickly as possible get people back to work, businesses reopening and the self-employed trading again.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has been clear that, if we had not taken the actions that we have, the situation would be much worse. The International Monetary Fund has said that our approach has been “aggressive” and “right”. Taken together, I believe our response has been one of the most comprehensive of any country anywhere in the world. Working closely with the Bank of England, business groups, trades unions, banks, charities and many others around the country, we have developed a plan to protect public services, people and businesses.
Let me address each of those areas in turn. Public services such as the NHS are on the frontline of the fight against coronavirus. I repeat today that whatever resources our NHS needs it will get. At the Budget in March, I announced a coronavirus emergency response fund, initially allocating £5 billion. We have now provided more than three times that initial amount, with the NHS and public services receiving £16 billion so far.
We are also providing extensive support for people’s jobs and incomes. Our most important and far-reaching policy is the coronavirus jobs retention scheme to keep people in employment. The scheme launched on schedule last week, and I am pleased to report that the first grants have just been paid. Around half a million employers have already applied for help to pay the wages of over 4 million furloughed jobs—jobs that might otherwise have been lost.
Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs is also on track to deliver the self-employed income support scheme, as promised in early June, and we will publish detailed guidance this week. Alongside those new interventions, we have strengthened our existing safety net with increases to universal credit, the local housing allowance and statutory sick pay. We have reinforced our social fabric, too, with £750 million for the charity sector.
Of course, the best way to support people is to protect their jobs, and that means supporting the businesses that employ them. Our plan to help businesses means the following: almost half of all business properties in England will pay no business rates this year; almost 1 million business premises can now receive cash grants of up to £10,000 or £25,000; and more than 2 million businesses have been offered a VAT deferral, saving them an average of £30,000.
Another 2.7 million people will be able to defer their self-assessment payments; almost 60,000 people and businesses have put “time to pay” arrangements in place with HMRC; up to 2 million employers will be able to access the statutory sick pay rebate, up to £48,000 per firm; more than £14 billion of lending has been issued through the Bank of England’s financing facility, and more than 20,000 coronavirus business interruption loans have now been approved. Of course, all that is on top of our furlough scheme, with payments now arriving.
Taken together, our plans are protecting millions of people and businesses across our country, through a set of interventions in the economy on a scale that we have never attempted before, and they are working. However, I know that some small businesses are still struggling to gain access to credit. They are, in many ways, the businesses most exposed to the impact of the coronavirus, and often find it harder to access credit in the first place. If we want to benefit from their dynamism and entrepreneurial spirit as we recover our economy, they will need extra support to get through this crisis. Some businesses will not want to take on more debt, which is why our focus has been on cash grants, tax cuts and tax deferrals, but for others, loans will be part of the answer.
Today we are announcing a new micro-loans scheme, providing a simple, quick, easy solution for those in need of smaller loans. Businesses will be able to apply for new bounce-back loans, for 25% of their turnover, up to a maximum of £50,000, with the Government paying the interest for the first 12 months. I and the Economic Secretary to the Treasury have been in close talks with the banks, and I am pleased to say that those loans will be available from 9 am next Monday.
There will be no forward-looking test of business liability, and no complex eligibility criteria; there will be just a simple, quick, standard form for businesses to fill in. For most firms, loans should arrive within 24 hours of approval. I have decided that, for this specific scheme, the Government will support lending by guaranteeing to the lender 100% of the loan.
Let me address that point directly. I have heard calls for the Government to underwrite all our loan schemes with 100% guarantees, but I remain unconvinced by the case for doing that universally. We should not ask ordinary taxpayers of today and tomorrow to bear the entire risk of lending almost unlimited sums to businesses that in some cases may have very little prospect of paying those loans back, and not necessarily because of the impact of the coronavirus. I do not think it is appropriate to provide 100% guarantees on all of our schemes. Instead, these new bounce-back loans carefully target that extraordinary level of state support at those who need it most. The £50,000 cap balances the risk to the taxpayer with the need to support our smallest businesses.
Right now, the most important thing for the health of our economy is the health of our people. We are making progress in our fight against the virus, but we are not there yet. Our strategy is to protect people and businesses through this crisis, by backing our public services and NHS with increased funding, strengthening our safety net to support those most in need, and supporting people to stay in work and keep their businesses going. Our response is comprehensive, coherent and co-ordinated. It is, I believe, the right approach. I hope I can continue to rely on the support and advice of all right hon. and hon. Members as I commend this statement to the House.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index figures that came out last week indicated a sharp fall in business confidence. Sadly, that was not a surprise. It has been clear for some time that the economic slowdown we are currently experiencing is sharp and deep. It was, however, unsettling that those figures suggested that business confidence has taken a stronger hit in the UK than across the eurozone. I have heard from small business owners who put their life and soul into their firms, but have less than two weeks of cashflow left, and they are devastated. We all need to work together to get the different support schemes working for our country. We must fix this.
I am well aware that many of the conditions for shifting out of lockdown are not within the Chancellor’s grasp. However, his Government need to be open about blocks on progress and how they will remove them. That applies to the test, track and trace regime, which must be in place before key sectors can open again. It also applies to the creation of a national tripartite system to ensure that workers and employers have confidence that they can return to work safely when the right time comes.
The Chancellor is directly responsible for the economic package, and he knows that we supported him in creating the furlough scheme; indeed, we called for it. But the evidence is that some other key elements of the economic package are failing, so, in a constructive spirit, I want to ask the Chancellor whether he would countenance solutions in three areas—first, on CBILS. It is a relief to hear from the Chancellor that he has listened to calls from the Opposition, business and others that we need a full guarantee for at least some loans—he has stated those of up to £50,000—but we need to be clear that the UK has an enormous mountain to climb. Switzerland has a population of under 9 million, yet it approved four times as many loans in its first week as the UK has done in a month. We are running out of time, so how will the Chancellor ensure that the bounce-back loans get to the businesses that need them? How will they get out of the door, and what plans does he have to ensure that the banks will have the capacity to provide those loans?
Secondly, recent figures suggest that one in 10 in our workforce looks set to be unemployed as a result of this crisis, with all that that entails for people’s future prospects, incomes, and their and their families’ health. Again, I say to the Chancellor that we will work with him. We have indicated many of the gaps in existing schemes to protect incomes, and will continue to push for them to be filled. However, we must be clear: the reason that those gaps are such an income-crushing, insecurity-producing crisis for so many is that, in most cases, the only alternative to coverage by these schemes is universal credit, which pushes people right down to an average of 10% of the income of the rest of the workforce. The DWP has made some welcome changes, but failure to change the initial loan into a grant threatens to create even more of a debt crisis among households. Apparently the Government are sympathetic to changing the loan into a grant, but we are told that the computer system just will not allow it, so my second question is: will the Chancellor knock heads together and get the computers to say yes to switching UC loans into grants?
Finally, as the Chancellor knows, before this crisis we had an economy that simply did not work for so many. Around a quarter of all families lacked just £100 in savings, even before the crisis began. The UK is the most regionally unequal country in Europe, and we have just had the longest squeeze on living standards not just in a generation, but in eight generations. The recovery from this crisis must be faster and wider to ensure that as many people as possible have a job to come back to. We need a flexible furlough scheme. The Chancellor told me previously that it cannot currently be made more flexible, but other countries have done so. Will he work to amend the furlough scheme to allow workers to come back on a part-time basis, and will he do as so many other countries are doing, from Germany to New Zealand, and talk about how those hit hard by the crisis can be supported not just now, but in the future, with employment-boosting redeploying retraining schemes? The aftermath of the pit closures tells us that an approach where the Government shrug their shoulders will scar our economy for generations to come, so my last question is: will the Chancellor work together with me, trade unions, businesses and local authorities to develop a plan to offer the hope of work to those who have already become unemployed, and get our economy moving again?
I hear a lot from many commentators that we should copy what was done in Switzerland. Now, Switzerland does have 100% guaranteed loans—I absolutely agree that it does—but it is worth bearing in mind that it does not provide very much else in the way of direct fiscal support for its businesses. Indeed, after extensive dialogue with the Swiss Government, it is very clear that, for them, the loan guarantee scheme is the primacy of their direct fiscal support to businesses. In this country, we have provided tens of billions of pounds in direct cash support—in tax cuts through reducing business rates, in cash grants of £10,000 or £25,000, and by paying people’s statutory sick pay bill. These very direct cash impacts, I believe, are more generous than asking companies to take on a loan, which is why I believe that the Switzerland comparison is not analogous. Secondly, the Switzerland furlough scheme requires employers to contribute a fifth of the payment to the scheme, whereas in this country, our furlough scheme removes that very considerable cash burden from businesses.
As I always say when I am at this Dispatch Box or answering questions elsewhere, it is important to look at the totality of all our economic interventions. When measured as a percentage of GDP, it is very clear to me that, as has been empirically shown by others, the sum total of our fiscal intervention to support businesses and people through this crisis is one of the most comprehensive and generous, in terms of scope and scale, anywhere in the world.
Turning to the next question—on universal credit and support for the most vulnerable—I firmly agree that during this crisis, we must of course look after the most vulnerable in our society, and from the Budget onwards, I have striven to do exactly that. We have invested extra funds in tax credits and in universal credit, improved eligibility for statutory sick pay, improved employment support allowance, improved how these schemes work for the self-employed, improved the local housing allowance and, indeed, created a brand new hardship fund for local authorities to help people with their council tax bills. All these investments have a sum total of over £7 billion of investment by this Government to strengthen the safety net to help the most vulnerable in our society through this difficult period.
Lastly, with regard to the future, I wholeheartedly believe that the best way out of this is to ensure that as many people as possible can return to the job that they had. That is the best way to protect people and to protect their livelihoods, their families and their household incomes, which is why all our support has been conducted with that aim in mind—how can we help to support businesses? How can we help them to keep their employees attached to that business? I believe that our furlough scheme stands at the centre of that. All the other interventions will help to support that aim so that as we emerge from this crisis, we can bounce back as quickly as possible to the life that we once knew.
“economic and social restrictions and one by one…fire up the engines of”
our “vast UK economy”. I can assure my right hon. Friend that that work is ongoing. I remain committed to it and, as the Prime Minister said, the Government will be saying much more about this in the coming days.
The Chancellor talks about supporting viable businesses to stay afloat, but that viability is very much in the hands of the banks, who are making decisions on tight criteria. What is he doing to ensure fairness in that assessment? The bounce-back loan scheme that he announces is good and deferring can be useful, but many small businesses feel that it will just mean storing up more debt for the future. It is understandable that they may not want to take on more debt. Will he look at more grants, CBILS overdrafts and revolving credit to help those businesses through the current difficulties?
Will the Chancellor also look at assistance for food wholesalers who are keeping care homes and small shops supplied, and who are suffering because of the downturn in hospitality? He made no mention in his statement of the many businesses that shut their doors on public health advice and now find that their insurers refuse to pay out on business interruption claims. Will the Government step in to cover disputed claims? Businesses just do not have the time or the money to go through the Financial Ombudsman Service or the courts.
With regard to the banks and viability tests, the new bounce-back loan scheme will not ask for any forward-looking information from companies. There will be a very simple form for companies to fill in. It will be done on the basis of self-certification, and the banks will be doing customary fraud, money laundering and identity checks rather than any credit checks, given our 100% guarantee. That problem should, therefore, be solved.
I have also spent time talking to the banks, as has the Economic Secretary, tirelessly on a daily basis about the other forms of credit that they are extending to small businesses. The hon. Lady is right to point out that some businesses would prefer to have things such as overdrafts. In that vein, I am pleased to tell her that according to the last numbers I had, about 20,000 new overdrafts have been extended, together with about 60,000 capital repayment holidays. Of course, general SME lending happens outside CBILS or, indeed, our new bounce-back scheme. I can assure her that the Economic Secretary and I remain alive to that and will keep up all necessary pressure on banks to make sure that credit flows to where it needs to get to. Today, I am happy to put on record my thanks to them and their teams for helping us to work at pace to get the bounce-back loan scheme up and running for next Monday morning.
Lastly, the hon. Lady asked about insurance companies, and I think she is right to highlight this. I would point insurance companies and their policyholders to the very strong guidance set out in a letter by the FCA, which urged insurance companies to behave responsibly and flexibly in the interpretation of their policies. We have previously made it very clear: where there was a question about whether a policy should pay out, depending on whether we had closed the business as a result of Government action, that was cleared up. Of course, very few people have policies that would cover them for this, but where it is clear that they should have a reasonable expectation of coverage, it is right that the insurance companies pay out. We will keep a close eye on the situation.
Of course we need to keep the lockdown in place until it can be safely lifted, but will the Chancellor today give employers and entrepreneurs, who are the lifeblood of our economy, reassurance that when restrictions can be lifted, they will be given some notice and some clear guidelines so that they can restart their supply chains with confidence?
We have designed these schemes at pace to get support to as many people as we can in the time available, and the decisions that we have taken enable that. At this point, complicated changes to the schemes would just mean delay in getting support to millions of people who are either already in receipt of it or very shortly to receive it.
I thank the Chancellor for all he has done, is doing and will do in the future. Some in the hospitality sector, in particular private bus companies, do not have premises and fall just outside the present small business support scheme. Will the Chancellor agree to extend the scheme? Similarly, the coronavirus bank loan scheme has had 36,000 applications, but only 16,000 have been approved. Will the Chancellor ramp up underwriting cover from 80% to 100%, as other countries have been doing?
Last week, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee said that monetary financing for financial fiscal spend with central bank money rather than Government bonds is something that central banks are always doing. Direct funding of Governments by their own central banks is therefore a fact. Can we remember the words of the late American economist J. K. Galbraith, who said that the process by which money is created is so simple, the mind is repelled? Will the Chancellor take this opportunity not to repeat the socially divisive policy of austerity? Coming out of this crisis, the last thing any of us needs is another round of austerity.
On resuming, the House entered into hybrid substantive proceedings (Order, 22 April).
[NB: [V] denotes a Member contributing virtually.]
Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.