PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
Middle East: Economic Response - 21 May 2026 (Commons/Commons Chamber)
Debate Detail
The Government have the right economic plan. I said I would grow the economy, and last week the Office for National Statistics confirmed that Britain’s economy was the fastest-growing in the G7 for the first quarter of this year. We beat the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast in the spring, with economic growth at 0.6% in the three months to March. And because of the resilience of our economy, this week the International Monetary Fund upgraded Britain’s forecast for this year.
I said I would cut borrowing. Borrowing last year was £20 billion lower than the previous year, and the latest forecasts show it falling in every year of this Parliament. The IMF has backed our economic plan, saying that the Government’s fiscal framework strikes
“a good balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending”.
I said I would cut the cost of living. Since the election, interest rates have been cut six times; real wages have continued to rise in every single month since I became Chancellor; and yesterday the ONS confirmed that inflation fell faster than expected in April, making the UK the only G7 economy where inflation fell last month.
We have the right economic plan, but the conflict in the middle east poses a significant challenge to the world’s economy, including our own. I have not shied away from my criticism of the war; I believe it to have been a mistake. Nor have I ignored the costs that it will bring to bear on the British people. I have been clear-eyed about my duty to do what I can to support families and businesses; to be responsive to a changing world, and responsible in the national interest.
Next week, Ofgem will confirm the level of the energy price cap that will apply from July. I know that any increase will be felt by families. Because of the decision I made in last year’s Budget to cut £150 from energy bills, we have lessened the impact of rising prices, and current external forecasts suggest that the cap from July will be at a similar level to the cap in April last year. We stand ready to act if market conditions worsen significantly later this year, and I have been leading cross-Government contingency work on the design of potential future targeted and temporary support.
For businesses, any support will also need to be carefully targeted at the firms most exposed to the crisis, but although many firms have been insulated from recent price rises through fixed-price contracts, there are sectors that face particular structural issues related to energy costs. That is why we have already increased support for our most energy-intensive industries through the British industry competitiveness scheme, which we have brought forward. It is also why we have built resilience in our critical infrastructure and industrial strategy sectors, where supply chains are critical for growth and security.
Following representations from my right hon. Friend the Member for Redcar (Anna Turley) and my hon. Friends the Members for Mid Cheshire (Andrew Cooper) and for Bathgate and Linlithgow (Kirsteen Sullivan), and building on the good work of the Minister for Industry, my hon. Friend the Member for Stockton North (Chris McDonald), I am today establishing a £350 million critical chemicals resilience fund to support strategically important producers. Having listened to hon. Friends, including my hon. Friends the Members for Stoke-on-Trent Central (Gareth Snell), for Stoke-on-Trent North (David Williams), for Stoke-on-Trent South (Dr Gardner) and for Amber Valley (Linsey Farnsworth), as well as workers represented by the GMB union, I am today announcing a new £120 million fund to help our historic ceramics sector, helping it to increase efficiency and drive down energy costs. We will always stand up for British industry and British jobs.
This week, the Government have also set out additional, targeted support for those businesses most exposed to rising fuel costs. We are granting hauliers a 12-month road tax holiday for heavy goods vehicles, saving the typical heavy lorry up to £912. To support farmers and the rail freight industry, I have decided to cut duty on red diesel by over a third until the end of this year, and having heard from my hon. Friend the Member for Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton (Jim McMahon) and the trade union Unison, I can today announce a 10p per mile increase in tax-free mileage rates, backdated to April 2026. This will benefit those who need to drive for work, from care workers to plumbers.
When a country faces challenges because of higher oil and gas prices, we must ensure that those who benefit from increased prices and volatility pay their fair share. In my first Budget, I extended and increased the energy profits levy. Last year, I announced a new permanent windfall tax regime on oil and gas prices. Last month, I increased the electricity generator levy, alongside further action to weaken the link between high gas prices and electricity prices. Today, I am bringing forward specific changes to the taxation of foreign branch profits, changing how companies are taxed in relation to their overseas activities. Currently, some oil and gas groups that operate overseas through foreign branches have structured their tax affairs in a way that ensures they pay little or no corporation tax on their UK energy trading profits. Today, we are putting an end to that practice. We expect these reforms to raise hundreds of millions of pounds a year and fund the package of measures set out today, with costings certified by the OBR forecast in the usual way.
I know the pressure that family finances are under, which is why I have already taken action to provide help. I have increased the national living wage and the national minimum wage to their highest rates ever, frozen prescription charges for two years in a row, and frozen rail fares for the first time in 30 years. I have also taken £150 off energy bills, which contributed to last month’s fall in inflation. However, I want to go further, and today I am taking further action to ease the burden on family finances.
First, on fuel duty, I have already extended the 5p cut twice since the election. I can confirm today that there will be no rise in fuel duty this year, recognising the pressure that the war has put on fuel prices.
Secondly, I know that the cost of the weekly shop is often one of the biggest worries for families, so last month I met supermarkets to urge them to do all they can to keep prices low. Today I am taking action by suspending tariffs on over 100 different foods sold in supermarkets. I am clear that I expect supermarkets to pass those savings on in full to their customers.
Thirdly, I will not tolerate any company exploiting the current situation to make excess profits at consumers’ expense. As such, I am bringing forward tough new powers so that the Competition and Markets Authority and other regulators can take action when firms break the rules.
Fourthly, for many families, driving is not always an option. Buses are the most popular form of public transport in Britain, with over 4 billion journeys made last year. I have already extended the £3 bus fare cap to March 2027, and today I can confirm that bus travel across England will be free for children aged between five and 15 throughout August.
Finally, I recognise that what matters for families is not just getting by, but being able to enjoy time together without worrying about the next bill. That is why I am launching the great British summer savings scheme, to help families and to support our hospitality sector. I can today announce a temporary cut in the rate of VAT on summer attractions from 20% to 5% over the summer holidays. This will apply to ticket prices for both adults and children, covering attractions such as fairs, theme parks, zoos and museums. It will include children’s tickets for cinemas, concerts, soft play and the theatre, and it will also cut the cost of children’s meals in restaurants and cafés from 20% VAT to 5%. These changes will apply across the UK from the start of the Scottish school holidays on 25 June and will run until the end of the school holidays in England, Wales and Northern Ireland on 1 September.
This Government have the right economic plan. We promised to grow the economy, and we have. We promised to cut inflation, and we have. We promised to cut the cost of living, and we are—promises made by a Labour Government, promises delivered by a Labour Government. I commend this statement to the House.
The decision taken to cancel the increase in fuel duty is welcome—it has been a long time coming. The Conservative party has been campaigning against the fuel duty rise for months, but the Chancellor has defended that policy repeatedly, leaving motorists and businesses worried about even higher fuel prices in September. It was always obvious that the fuel duty increase would need to be cancelled—obvious to everyone except the Chancellor. Why did she fight us on fuel duty for so long? Why has she been so hellbent on raising fuel duty during an energy crisis?
Well, the inevitable U-turn has finally come, but it is astonishing to hear the Chancellor claiming that the Government can afford to help households because the forecasts have improved. Is she seriously suggesting that the economic outlook is now better than at the time of the last fiscal forecasts when we have had the Iran conflict, to which our economy is highly exposed thanks to this Government’s ruinous choices? The Chancellor has just pointed to the IMF forecast being upgraded this week. Let us be very clear about what is going on here: the IMF adjusted its growth forecast for this year up slightly to 1%, but until April it was forecasting 1.3%. Where exactly is the supposed growth dividend? Will the Chancellor directly address that point?
This is exactly the same game that the Government played last year when they U-turned on cuts to the winter fuel payment. They claimed then that they were U-turning because the economy was improving when, of course, they were doing it due to political pressure. Nobody bought it then and nobody is buying it now. Once again, we have a weak Government caving in to the inevitable after spending months defending a truly terrible decision.
The Chancellor claims that the measures announced today will be funded by a number of different tax measures, but most of the ones she mentions are already in place and baked into the OBR’s forecasts. Given that the Chancellor has not announced any measures to control Government spending, will she confirm that, in fact, the measures that she is announcing today will be funded, at least in part, by yet more Government borrowing? Will she also confirm whether fuel duty rates will still rise to the same level as previously planned after December, or will today’s announcement mean a permanent reduction in fuel duty?
Although we in the Opposition welcome some of the measures that the Chancellor has taken today, such as the increase in mileage allowances, it is all very minor compared with the inflation this Government have fuelled since coming into office and the tax rises that the Chancellor has imposed. Today’s announcements will bring little comfort to the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs, the countless businesses that have folded and the high streets that are now hollowed out. The reality is that we are in a terrible position to deal with the consequences of the latest energy crisis, thanks to the actions that this Government have taken.
The Chancellor claimed that growth is up; it is actually down. She claimed that borrowing is down; it is 75% up compared with the plans that she inherited. She claimed that she is fighting inflation; we have the highest inflation in the G7. She claimed that she is cutting energy bills; energy bills have gone up under this Labour Government. And of course, she did not mention unemployment.
On energy, this Government have made a conscious decision not to exploit our own natural resources in the North sea, weakening our economy and our energy security while importing oil from Putin’s Russia at the cost of Ukrainian lives. Families and businesses are facing rising costs and rising taxes. People are losing their jobs. The country is hurting. If the Chancellor were serious about the challenges we face, she would commit to getting spending down, tackling the benefits bill and getting taxes down to strengthen our economy. Yet thanks to the Chancellor’s mistakes and the weakness of this dying Government, today’s statement is all we get. Does the Chancellor really think that that is enough?
I have always said, since the middle east conflict began, that I would keep an eye on what was happening to oil and gas prices and set out plans ahead of the change due to come into effect in September. That is exactly what I have done. I have also gone further in three specific areas, with additional support for hauliers, additional support for red diesel—particularly helping the rail freight industry and farmers—and the higher mileage rates. The shadow chancellor says he welcomes the changes on mileage rates. It is the first time they have been increased since 2011, so if he welcomes them so much, why did the Conservatives not increase them when they had 14 years in government?
On the Iran conflict, let us remember that this is a war that the UK did not start and this Government chose not to join, whereas the Conservatives and Reform were cheering on the conflict every step of the way. The impact on the UK and global economies would be much more severe if we had heeded the pleas of Reform and the Conservatives to join that conflict.
The shadow Chancellor talks about inflation and growth. Yesterday, the numbers showed that inflation had fallen; we are the only country in the G7 where inflation fell last month. The IMF has revised up our growth forecast and we had the fastest growth of the G7 in the first quarter of this year. The shadow Chancellor asks whether that will be paid for with new borrowing. No, it will not. If he had been listening, he would have heard the changes we are making around the foreign branch exemption. That will raise hundreds of millions of pounds a year, which is why we are able to afford the package that we have announced today.
The shadow Chancellor mentioned high streets. Because of the Pride in Place money that I announced at the Budget, the banking hubs and the changes that we made to business rates, which have seen those rates for retail and hospitality come down significantly compared with the plans we inherited from the Conservative Government, we can reinvigorate our high streets.
The shadow Chancellor mentioned borrowing. Borrowing has fallen below 5% for the first time since 2019 because of the actions that I have taken as Chancellor. Borrowing is expected to fall in every year of this Parliament—very different from what happened under the Conservatives. Employment and activity remain in the top half of the OECD and the G7. The biggest benefits boom came under the last Conservative Government, when the shadow Chancellor was the Work and Pensions Secretary.
Oil and gas will play an important role in our economy for many years to come, but we also need to invest in renewable energy, which is why we announced yesterday restrictions in the number of judicial reviews, which are holding up investment in clean energy. It is a shame that the Conservatives voted against our Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025 and it is a shame that the Liberal Democrats abstained on it. We are determined to get Britain building, including building the energy infrastructure we need to get bills down.
Just a couple of weeks ago, I announced changes around tie-backs to make it easier for oil and gas companies to exploit their reserves of oil and gas in the North sea. Jackdaw and Rosebank would have gone ahead if it had not been for the last Government messing up the way they legislated. We will shortly announce the decisions, which the Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero will make. I am very clear that oil and gas will play an important role in the UK for many years to come, adding to our energy security alongside investment in nuclear, small modular reactors, floating offshore wind and onshore wind and solar, opposed by the Conservative party.
Let me ask the Chancellor two questions. First, I genuinely welcome the Government’s focus on the cost of food, which is of huge concern to the constituents of Members of all political parties. However, is there any risk that short-term gain might result in long-term pain? In looking at the tariffs, has the Chancellor had any conversations with the food manufacturing industry about whether it can remain competitive? Does removing the tariffs inadvertently risk undermining our food manufacturing sector? If there is a risk, will she look at our plans for a good food Bill and for promoting nature-friendly farming? I ask that question in the spirit of constructive opposition.
Secondly, the Chancellor and her Ministers will know that we are due to have a very hot summer. That means huge demand for outdoor attractions, because children will want to be outside in the hot weather. Indoor attractions, such as soft play centres, will not benefit so much, because there will not be much demand for them in the summer months, but there will be in the winter months. Will the Chancellor look carefully at the differences within the sector? Children are priced out of play when they need to go indoors in the winter months, but not so much in the summer months.
On food, the hon. Lady cannot both say that she welcomes help with the cost of living, and then be a bit uncertain about tariff reductions. We have focused the tariff reductions on food products and agrifoods that we do not produce in significant quantities in the UK. We work very closely with the Department for Business and Trade in identifying those sectors.
On indoor and outdoor summer activities, I have had enough family holidays in the UK to know that there are plenty of days when it rains. I am sure that the leader of the Liberal Democrats, the right hon. Member for Kingston and Surbiton (Ed Davey), will be visiting a soft play centre soon.
May I extract from the Chancellor a commitment that this is the next stage of a new partnership between the UK Government and UK ceramics? Today’s announcement will absolutely help us survive, but with more working together, we can thrive as a sector and do our bit to boost exports, boost growth and create well-paid, unionised jobs in this country.
Many of my Glasgow East constituents rely on cars and vans to get to work and do their work. They face extortionate charging for parking in town from the SNP council, which is utterly anti-car, and regular bills for repairing their cars and vans from all the potholes. Will my right hon. Friend set out how she is helping hard-pressed car and van drivers in Glasgow?
The best way, though, that we can help all our constituents, the farming sector and others is to bring the conflict to an end and reopen the strait of Hormuz. That is why the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary are working intensively with international partners to do just that, while at the same time we are working to diversify our supply of oil and gas so that fertiliser, to which the right hon. Gentleman rightly refers, is still available for our farmers.
The hon. Gentleman mentions support for people with the cost of heating oil. We were pleased to be able to introduce targeted support in areas that are particularly dependent on heating oil. We are doing a piece of work at the moment to see how much money has been used by local authorities—some have been more proactive than others in ensuring that local residents get support—and once we have completed that, we will look at whether and what further support is needed.
Does the Chancellor not recognise, however, that struggling families need help year round, not just short-term sticking plasters in the summer holidays? The Green party is calling for free bus travel for everybody under 22, year round. We are calling for free school meals for all children, to help all families year round. The cost of living crisis requires year-round action. This could be funded easily by taxing wealth fairly. Will she take that year-round bold action to tackle the cost of living crisis properly?
This morning, I visited John Ruskin primary school in Camberwell in my constituency. We might think that the impact of what is happening is not affecting young children, but it is. The children there were so articulate, raising questions on oil and gas prices and prices in the supermarket, so I thank the Chancellor for addressing the issues. How will the CMA monitor supermarkets? It is a non-ministerial organisation, but will it be providing regular updates to the Treasury, so that we can ensure that price cuts are being passed on to hard-working families?
As we live in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape, it is vital that we work with some of our closest allies. That is why I welcome the European partnership Bill announced in the King’s Speech last week. Will the Chancellor continue to explore ways to strengthen our economic relationship with the EU as a means of promoting stability and security, particularly in the light of the current financial pressures as a result of the Iran war?
On supermarkets, which my hon. Friend mentioned, the Co-op announced last November, on the back of my Budget, that it was cutting the cost of 1,000 products because of the beneficial impact of the changes to business rates. Last week, the Co-op froze the price of more than 40 essential products, and it has committed to working to keep them down. I welcome those measures by the Co-op. I hope that other supermarkets heed the calls of their customers to keep prices down; and I hope that they take advantage of what I have set out today to reduce their costs, and pass those savings directly on to consumers.
Earlier this year, the Government set out welcome plans to break the link between the wholesale price of gas and the cost of electricity. Can my right hon. Friend provide an update on those plans and tell us how that will help reduce bills over the long term?
On the specific issue of delinking gas and electricity prices, this is both a short-term and long-term measure. In the short term, we have increased the electricity generator levy by 10 percentage points to bring in more money this year. We are renegotiating contracts to move electricity prices on to contracts for difference in order to have greater certainty about electricity prices, so that the gas price does not set the electricity price so frequently, giving greater stability of energy prices to businesses and families.
As the Chancellor said in her statement, the British industrial competitiveness scheme offers important support for economic growth, but at the moment it excludes the vital critical minerals sector, which, as she knows, is directly relevant to my Camborne, Redruth and Hayle constituency. Will she meet me to discuss energy support measures for the critical minerals sector?
I thank the Chancellor for her statement. The relief she is providing to the chemicals industry will be welcomed by sector businesses in Mid Cheshire. Their expertise and innovation contribute significantly to both local employment and national resilience. I have previously spoken about the rising input costs and regulatory challenges that these businesses face, and I look forward to hearing more about how she will consult with the industry on eligibility for the funds. Does she agree that the forthcoming summit with the EU presents an opportunity to bear down on regulation further by seeking alignment and mutual recognition on the UK and EU REACH—registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals—regulations?
Yes, we will be consulting on chemicals and ceramics to ensure that we give businesses the right support, but we do not want a long consultation to get in the way of actually getting the support to those businesses. My hon. Friend made an important point about our trading relationship with our nearest neighbours and trading partners. We are proud to be a Government who have done trade deals with the Republic of Korea, the United States, India and, yesterday, the Gulf countries. However, the biggest prize is a trade deal and improved trading relations with our nearest neighbours and trading partners in the EU, and I hope that we will make progress on that in the next few months.
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