PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE
Business of the House - 27 March 2025 (Commons/Commons Chamber)
Debate Detail
Monday 31 March—Consideration of Lords message on the Non-Domestic Rating (Multipliers and Private Schools) Bill, followed by remaining stages of the Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (Transfer of Functions etc) Bill [Lords].
Tuesday 1 April—If necessary, consideration of Lords messages, followed by Second Reading of the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill [Lords].
Wednesday 2 April—If necessary, consideration of Lords messages, followed by a motion to approve the draft Infrastructure Planning (Onshore Wind and Solar Generation) Order 2025, followed by a motion to approve the draft Motor Vehicles (Driving Licences) (Amendment) (No. 2) Regulations 2025, followed by a motion to approve the draft Whiplash Injury (Amendment) Regulations 2025.
Thursday 3 April—General debate on the impact of digital platforms on UK democracy, followed by a general debate on access to sport and PE in schools. The subjects for these debates were determined by the Backbench Business Committee.
Friday 4 April—The House will not be sitting.
The provisional business for the week commencing 7 April includes:
Monday 7 April—General debates: subjects to be confirmed.
Tuesday 8 April—General debate on the potential merits of awarding a posthumous Victoria Cross to Blair Mayne, followed by a general debate on matters to be raised before the forthcoming Adjournment. The subjects for these debates were determined by the Backbench Business Committee.
The House will rise for the Easter recess at the conclusion of business on Tuesday 8 April and will return on Tuesday 22 April.
I turn from fathers to mothers, as this Sunday, of course, is Mother’s Day. The infant shadow Leaders of the House have been instructed—not that they needed it—on how to manage the occasion. I am sure that the whole House will want to join me in celebrating mothers at the weekend, and expressing ourselves in all kinds of ways to thank our mothers and the mothers we have among us for all the work they do.
This has been the week of the spring statement. The House will recall the October Budget in November of last year. It was described as a once-in-a-generation Budget, with no tax rises to follow. This week we have seen that the Chancellor’s own growth forecast just four months later has been halved, and she has increased cuts to welfare benefits. That follows the interesting strategy of abolishing NHS England, having just fired all the team running it. The tax burden is on track to hit a record high in 2027-28.
We should give credit where credit is due—the Chancellor has protected capital investment, which is a very important and correct decision—but there have also been wheezes. I am sorry to say that she has somewhat pulled the wool over the eyes of the Office for Budget Responsibility in relation to housing growth, which is the Government’s new “get out of jail free” card. It has never been included in an OBR estimate before, and it is very doubtful and unlikely that it will happen in any case, even at those levels—the target has already been downgraded from 1.5 million houses to 1.3 million houses—because of the planned upheaval in local government. Meanwhile, the immensely damaging Employment Rights Bill goes entirely unscored economically by the OBR. We will see what it says about that piece of legislation next time around.
The brutal fact is that although the Government claim to prioritise growth, growth has halved since they came into power. They have talked about little else, but even their own forecasts do not show growth getting back even to 2% by the end of the decade, and every major independent expert forecast of the economy’s future growth is lower than that of the OBR.
What do we see if we look more closely? The spring statement is not really about work at all; it is about moving people from welfare into lower-paying welfare. The cut to universal credit announced last week has been followed by a freezing of universal credit—why? It is because that appears to hit the Chancellor’s own fiscal headroom number to the decimal point. Last week we heard all the rhetoric about the moral case for nudging people back into work, but now it seems that this is actually an accounting exercise, and the economic and moral justification for the policy has been lost sight of.
The second point is the question whether artificial intelligence, which the Government have greatly emphasised, will actually have the effect of increasing growth. The Chancellor suggested that this idea was somehow obvious and conventional wisdom, but that is very far from true. The Nobel prize-winning economist Bob Solow famously said that the effects of the IT revolution could be seen everywhere except in the economic numbers. Other countries are scaling and deploying artificial intelligence with massive speed, and many experts believe that AI could increase unemployment and inequality, and raise the costs of retraining people and reintegrating them into the workforce. Far from creating economic growth, the advent of AI could end up forcing a Government—possibly this Government—into even more spending than they presently contemplate.
Finally, we get to the vexed and much-discussed issue of so-called fiscal headroom—or, to use a more technical phrase, the goolies-in-a-vice problem. It has been suggested that the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing expecting a different result. So far, we have seen minimal fiscal adjustment at the statement, and meanwhile the Chancellor has managed to recreate the same constraining conditions that existed beforehand. This is a situation entirely of the Government’s own making. It was the Chancellor’s decision to choose these fiscal rules, and it was her decision then to take measures that undermined economic growth. She has staked her own credibility and that of the Government on those decisions. The result is that we will now have endless uncertainty and avoidable speculation about the fiscal position every week, through the comprehensive spending review and into the autumn Budget.
The Chancellor has refused to rule out making more cuts to spending. Even so, she may have to impose tax rises, and those tax rises could come even sooner than anticipated if the US decides to go ahead with the tariff it has suggested. As such, my question is this: what will the Leader of the House feel in her own heart, and what will she say to her Cabinet colleagues over the next few weeks, as the full effects of these terribly damaging decisions become clear?
As the right hon. Gentleman says, yesterday we heard the spring statement. We heard that this Labour Government are taking on the unprecedented long-term challenges that this country faces—I know that he and Conservative Members do not want to acknowledge it, but I am afraid that is the reality. The problems that we face run deep. There is huge global uncertainty, as he knows; there have been years of under-investment in infrastructure and in people, leading to low productivity and low growth; there are the effects of covid, to which we were particularly exposed, and which his Government did not address, leaving a generation of working-age adults consigned to benefits and 1 million young people not in education, training or work; and our economy remains in the long shadow of Liz Truss, who destroyed fiscal confidence, leaving high and costly debt, high interest rates and ordinary people paying the price. That, I am afraid, is the legacy we are trying to address.
We are facing up to those realities and putting this country on a path to improved living standards, secure work, an NHS that is back on its feet, affordable homes to live in, and security through defence and our global leadership. That is going to take time—there is no denying it—but the forecasts published yesterday, which the right hon. Gentleman took a selective view of, show the green shoots of recovery. He might not want to hear it, but as the OBR said yesterday, growth forecasts after this year have been upgraded as a result of our policies.
Britain is now set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G7 this year and next year. I am glad that the shadow Leader of the House is welcoming the boost in capital investment, after years and years of under-investment and a downward trajectory in capital spending by his Government. That has led to another £2 billion extra earmarked for defence, another £2 billion more for affordable and social housing, and a transformation fund that will help reform our public services and deliver those better outcomes.
After the right hon. Gentleman’s Government left millions languishing in the aftermath of covid—that is what they did—we have got a plan to get people back to work, and we are making sure that the welfare safety net is sustainable for the long term. That is a far cry, I am afraid, from his Government. Our plan includes a pay rise for the lowest earners, coming in next week. The Employment Rights Bill, which we on the Government Benches are proud of, will give dignity and security in work. We have protections for the most in need and the biggest back to work programme in a generation. Even in the long shadow of Liz Truss—a very long shadow—which looms large over our fiscal credibility, interest rates are coming down, inflation is now under control and stability is restored.
The shadow Leader of the House asked about the headroom, but I gently remind him that the headroom that the Chancellor set out yesterday is 50% more than the headroom she inherited from her predecessor. One of the most shocking aspects of what we inherited was the eye-watering cost of servicing our enormous debt. We now spend £100 billion a year servicing debt, which is more than we spend on defence, justice and the Home Office combined. That is what we inherited from the Conservatives. Even in the face of those challenges, the Labour Chancellor announced yesterday that the Government’s day-to-day spending will be going up above inflation each year for this forecast, and that will help restore our public services and give support to those who need it most. Those are Labour values in practice, making different choices for this country in the interests of working people. That is what Labour values are all about.
Are we to assume that the Government are doing this in the dark? Should we assume, perhaps, that they are closing their eyes and hoping for the best, while in reality not having a clue what it will mean for patients, carers or people in their time of need? Surely if they had properly assessed their proposals, and it was all going to be fine, they would waste no time in telling us.
The alternative, of course, is that the Government know exactly how bad these cuts will be and what they will mean for our struggling health and care services. Either way, it is right that this House and the public should know what the Government know about the impact of their plans. Will the Leader of the House therefore grant Government time to discuss the impact on our NHS of cutting carer support and of their rushed cuts to integrated care boards?
However, I absolutely agree with the hon. Lady that such reforms need to be done carefully, with compassion and in a managed way. We need to consider all aspects, especially in relation to what might be considered passported benefits. Primary legislation will be coming forward on these issues shortly, so they will be fully debated on the Floor of the House. I am sure that Members will take time to consider those measures.
The hon. Lady raises some questions about ICBs and the changes we are making to the national health service and NHS England. Our intention and our aim is to get more money back into frontline services and have less being spent on management and duplication in the back-office systems. Again, some of those aspects will need primary legislation. That will be brought forward, and therefore impact assessments and other things will come to light at that time.
The business in Westminster Hall next week will include a debate on eating disorder awareness on Tuesday 1 April. On Thursday, there will be a debate on waste incinerators, followed by a debate on Government support for Thames Water. On Tuesday 8 April, there will be a debate on the persecution of Christians. I will follow up with the debates after the Easter recess next week.
On 13 April 1919, families gathered peacefully in the Jallianwala Bagh to enjoy the sun and a day out. On behalf of the British Army, General Dyer marched his troops in and ordered them to fire on innocent people until they ran out of ammunition. At the end of the massacre, 1,500 people were dead and 1,200 injured. Eventually, General Dyer was disgraced for that stain on the British empire. In 2019, the then Prime Minister, Theresa May, recognised that this event was a stain on British colonial rule in India. The anniversary of the massacre will be on 13 April, when we are in recess. Could we have a Government statement admitting to what went wrong and formally giving an apology to the people of India?
I thank the hon. Gentleman for raising the important matter of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre. As he says, it is one of the most notorious and shameful episodes in the history of British colonialism, particularly in India. I will ensure that Foreign Office Ministers have heard his question, and I will suggest that they bring forward a statement in advance of the anniversary.
Bidfood, one of the UK’s largest distributors, has suddenly derecognised the GMB trade union, which has caused lots of concern and worry among its employees. A good employer does not have anything to fear, or worry about, from a recognition agreement. Having had a recognition agreement for 30 years, Bidford should not suddenly stop that arrangement. Would the Leader of the House join me in urging Bidfood to sit at the table with the GMB and make sure that the relationship is re-established?
I think the hon. Member was raising with the Chancellor the question of whether we could raise more taxes from the wealthy. Just for the record, I would say to him that we have been doing that in a number of ways, lots of which have been controversial, whether it is by reducing VAT breaks for private schools, increasing taxes on those who own private jets, increasing capital gains tax, taking on the excess profits of the energy companies and, of course, dealing with non-dom tax status. All that has raised billions of pounds for our public services, and for what we are doing. We absolutely think that those with the broadest shoulders should pay the highest price. As he has requested, I will make sure that he gets forthcoming replies.
“I implore you to keep up the fight for those with cholangiocarcinoma.”
I regret to inform the House that Dr Llewelyn passed away on 15 March, leaving behind her partner and three children, as well as the rest of those in my community who loved, respected and relied on her. In Dr Llewelyn’s name, I want to keep my promise to her and keep on fighting, so will the Leader of the House make time for a debate on the treatment of those with cholangiocarcinoma?
Over a week later, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office contacted me this morning to say that it now has Owen’s consent to talk to me about his case. I am very pleased that he has been granted a royal pardon by the King of Bahrain, but will the Leader of the House ensure that the FCDO works with me to arrange his urgent deportation back to this country, and that we avoid further delays in the future to MPs securing access to the information they need to support their constituents?
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